August 2014

August 2014

if you want to change something in your life

Final Result for August

Lays:             +£1423.23     
Trading:            +£19.01
Free Bets          +£330.93

TOTAL             +£1773.17      

Sunday 31 August

Firstly, my apologies to regular readers on my lack of posts. Those of you running your own blogs will know that it is time consuming and can take the mind's focus from where it should be and that's in the racing or footy markets. So I decided to take a few days off the blog The next thing the end of the month arrives and I have not posted for over 3 weeks. I tell you, August has just flown by

For me it has been a pleasing month. The lays have performed really well. I know longer solely rely on my ratings to give me lays but use them in conjunction with form reading and as I write I have not had an unsuccessful lay since Saturday 23 Aug. My trading has been few and far between but I can see that my future does not lie there. And every time I was emailed an offer from a bookie I looked into whether I could make some guaranteed profits and that went well getting me a free £330 - its also why my overall profit does not agree with my Betfair account because I have some cash tied up in Sky, Bet365, BetVictor and Ladbrokes.  I have posted the Betfair P&L below but because of all the bookie shennanigans it does not reflect well what really went on in the month.

Overall it was a month of a lot of reflection about my skill set and where my strengths lie. So September will see the following:

1) Stick to laying horses. That's me, not trading or backs to lays, just straight horse lays.
2) Nabbing bookie offers but using just football...everytime I use horse racing I get it the wrong way round and end up with hundreds of pounds in bookie accounts and having to play through it before withdrawing.
3) Cancelling Geeks subscription - it will remove the temptation to trade.

So, if you are gambling or trading and feel that things are not taking the right direction I would recommend you take some time to assess yourself. Determine where your strengths and weaknesses lie and then change your gambling/trading to align them with your strengths and negate those weaknesses. Easier said than done, I know, but...

if you want to change something in your life...

then you have to change something in your life!

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Tue 5 Aug

First of all, I forgot to mention that I saved 2.25 points yesterday by omitting 9 selections and 4 of them went on to win...but at quite low prices.

Today was almost  a clean sweep. The one losing lay was late on at Cork and I had laid Aussie Guest. But almost from flag fall he looked very sharp. Once the horse got to 25% dob I had that feeling and put in a back bet that I didn't expect to be matched...it was and I managed to halve my liability. Of course he went on to win but I was happy with the £50 I nabbed from a layer in running.

Today I omitted 4 lays but they all lost so cost me a few points, cumul, incl yesterday, I am 8.58pts down on the omissions...still early days this month. 

Very busy day today up at the allotment...and it's all very fruitful, Steve. The sweetcorn are delicious and been a starter for us and the kids twice this week...three times after tomorrow! We all love them :D

Lays:              +£110.88

Mon 4 Aug

I had some Honey-Do's today so I only managed to trade for a few races and picked up a red in the first because I was rushing! My God...how many times has TraderDave and Caan said "Make sure you are in the right frame of mind before trading!"? So having got back from the shops and loaded Geeks and three minutes before flag fall I decide that's the right time to jump into a trade. FGS Dean - that's the right frame of mind is it? So a red to start.

Anyway, because time was short I decided I would trade five other races just to get back to break even...it took me four races and I stopped, as I was backwards and forwards to the PC all afternoon. That's OK when laying because I have all my ratings set out hours before racing starts - but not conducive to trading.

And with the laying I picked up two winners, at least one of those was on the cards statistically so it was not a disaster, just disappointing to end my short winning streak.

Lays:               -£29.83
Trading:             +£0.15 WOW!

TOTAL:              -£29.68

Sun 3 Aug

Responding to Dave's comment - I had a fabulous time, Dave. Market Rasen is in a lovely area of the country. And the course itself was equally as beautiful. Mind you, I've updated my course notes because I had always followed the Racing Post description of "undulating" but its not...small rise halfway down the back straight then a long trip downhill round the bend into the long flat straight finish. Horses that don't travel well up or downhill should not find Market Rasen a problem.

I spent a couple of hours Saturday afternoon looking at Sunday's cards and again on Sunday morning and then hacked into my home PC remotely and updated the bot with Sunday's racing. As with Saturday I omitted some races, 4/5 that cost me 1.96 points (cumul 7.03pts) but I stick to my long term view with these.

As for the rest of Sunday, well it was a nice clean sweep and the third day of profit in a row.

Lays:              +£104.56

Sat 2 Aug

I went away Saturday morning but set up the bot before I went. I also had a look at races where I thought my ratings were perhaps close or questionable. This was not easy so far in advance of racing and in hindsight I removed too may, 8 in all and only one of them won so that cost me 4.73 points (cumul 5.07pts) but I am still thinking along the lines that this will save me in the long term.

As it happened, I only picked up one other losing lay so ended up with a profit on the day and two profitable days in a row :)

Lays:               +£40.96

Fri 1 Aug

Some diary like updates a la Trader Dave :)

10.30
Regular readers will know that Fridays are not my best days. I can find no reason why, but the stats cant lie. So I wait with a small amount of trepidation to see what the day will bring.

17.45
Half way through my lays. I've omitted one so far and that won but at a low BSP 2.56, still its a £30 odd quid saving already. At the moment I'm about £55 up.

I decided to leave the PC for some long periods today to study the cards for tomorrow to get ahead. So my trading of races has not been frequent. But I made 5 trades during the afternoon and 4 were green (+1.16, +0.52, +1.25, +0.43) and only one red (-0.67) so they have done well.

I'm just going check the evening lays so see if I should omit any and then head off to the pub for a few hours. It's my Birthday on Sunday and we are going away tomorrow morning to stay in a swanky 5 Star hotel tomorrow night and eat in their Michelin starred restaurant. Then on Sunday we are off to Family Day at Market Rasen race course so I am unsure when the next update will be.

Sat 09.35
Well, I've been up since a tad after 5am to finish today's cards before we drive off to Lincolnshire so I have a few minutes to update on yesterday...omissions first - I left out three and one won but at a low price, so for the first time it cost me money, but 0.34 of a point so I'm not grumbling :)

The lays worked out well with 7 out of 7...more clean sweep days, please! As I said above, only five trades but another successful foray into the ladders :)

Lays:               +£96.75     
Trading:             +£2.69      

Total:              +£99.44