I just wanted to make a quick post about what happened in June.
Up to the beginning of June I laid horses with an average BSP of around 9.0. Then I added a new method for selecting lower priced horses. Was this part of the problem?
Actually, no, in fact quite the opposite. There were 184 lays with an average price of 3.64 and these brought a handy profit back into the moment.
I just wanted to say a few words about the "expected" number of winners (or losers) that a method should generate. if you were to add up the expected chance of each selection then you would have the number of expected winners (or losers). When you compare that to the actual number of winners (or losers) then you can gauge if you are ahead of the game or not. (I'll cover this in more detail in the "My Advice" section soon).
For the three month period April to June there were 642 lays at an average price of 8.7 and 79 were unsuccessful against an expected number of losing lays of 101. So quite acceptable. But taking June on its own there were 224 at and average price of 8.7 and 34 losing lays against expected of 35. That shows me that I had no "edge" in June and that I could just have easily stuck a pin in each race-card to determine my lays.
Let me try to lay that out in a better way:
Main Laying Method Apr-June June 1-14 Jun 15-30 Jun
Selections 642 224 83 141
Actual Losing Lays 79 34 16 18
Expected Losing Lays 101 35 13 22
Strike Rate 87.7% 84.8% 80.7% 87.2%
So, my conclusions are twofold:
1) The introduction of lower priced lays improved the situation for the month and I have no reason to believe they will not continue to perform well.
2) I am concluding that the unusual start to the month was, effectively, my expected losing streak and, while this is likely to happen again, it does not represent a death knoll to my methods.
I'm with TraderDave on this one:
POSITIVE MENTAL ATTITUDE!
