I just wanted to make a quick post about what happened in June.
Up to the beginning of June I laid horses with an average BSP of around 9.0. Then I added a new method for selecting lower priced horses. Was this part of the problem?
Actually, no, in fact quite the opposite. There were 184 lays with an average price of 3.64 and these brought a handy profit back into the moment.
I just wanted to say a few words about the "expected" number of winners (or losers) that a method should generate. if you were to add up the expected chance of each selection then you would have the number of expected winners (or losers). When you compare that to the actual number of winners (or losers) then you can gauge if you are ahead of the game or not. (I'll cover this in more detail in the "My Advice" section soon).
For the three month period April to June there were 642 lays at an average price of 8.7 and 79 were unsuccessful against an expected number of losing lays of 101. So quite acceptable. But taking June on its own there were 224 at and average price of 8.7 and 34 losing lays against expected of 35. That shows me that I had no "edge" in June and that I could just have easily stuck a pin in each race-card to determine my lays.
Let me try to lay that out in a better way:
Main Laying Method Apr-June June 1-14 Jun 15-30 Jun
Selections 642 224 83 141
Actual Losing Lays 79 34 16 18
Expected Losing Lays 101 35 13 22
Strike Rate 87.7% 84.8% 80.7% 87.2%
So, my conclusions are twofold:
1) The introduction of lower priced lays improved the situation for the month and I have no reason to believe they will not continue to perform well.
2) I am concluding that the unusual start to the month was, effectively, my expected losing streak and, while this is likely to happen again, it does not represent a death knoll to my methods.
I'm with TraderDave on this one:
POSITIVE MENTAL ATTITUDE!
Hiya Dean.
ReplyDeleteYep this game is not easy and I've seen many fall by the wayside. I like your reasoned and analytical approach and that is a great asset.
The low price lay model seems to me to be a good idea. Back in my greyhound gambling days I never backed ANYTHING under 2/1 no matter how much I fancied it as my strike rate would have to be pretty high to make a profit.Even in the place market my maximum lay price is around the 2.0 mark!
Will be interested to see how it goes over the next few weeks.
Cheers - Dave.
Hi Dave,
ReplyDelete30 years spent as an accountant will be the answer to my analytical side :D
Yes, I like the low lays because of the low liabilities, and I agree with you on backing odds on...quick way to the poor house.
But I like the high strike rate of laying high too...I suppose they are the two sides of the coin and we all tend to gamble within our comfort zones.
Going the extra mile, like you increasing your stakes...we both know we should be stretching ourselves but making that jump means us leaving the comfort zone. And, like all the motivation statements you publish we've just got to bloody do it!
Cheers,
Dean
Hi Dean,
ReplyDeleteI know you don't want to spend all day in front of the PC but if that's what it takes to make a living from the horses it has to be done. The alternative is to get up at 6.30 or earlier 5 days a week, do the daily commute get into work and say to the man HERE'S MY LIFE DO WHAT YOU WANT WITH IT. Or you can work from 11.00 to 6.00 from home. You have the knowledge and experience to read the races and be more
selective with your investments. It's the way to go.
I'm sure you will make a living with your skill.
Good Luck.