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Friday 1 August 2014

July 2014


So, I can draw a line under July, £170 loss, but much improved over the £770 I wankered in June. As TraderDave points out in his comment below, the omitted lays are working well  and saved me approx £430. My underlying concern is that £770 loss in June compares with a real total of £600 in July. EEk. Have the wheels fallen off?

Just when I have doubts my old mate Mike (Dean Dashingly) posts a motivating comment! You are, as always, right, Mike. I'm nothing if not tenacious! Cheers Buddy.


July Result:    
Lays:           -£143.67
Trading:          +16.67
Back to Lay:      -£3.99
Free Bets/Arbs:   +£0.00
Tennis:          +£16.84
Gambles:         -£41.87
World Cup:       -£15.10

TOTAL:          -£171.12

Thu 31 Jul

The number of clean sweep days have been a real disappointment. The amount of single winners I am picking up reflects in the small loss for the month. The winner I picked up today was at 9.2 and I am surprised by the prices of the winners I am getting, the last three were at 9.2, 19.0 and 30.0. I know I am omitting some lower priced lays and that is something I will have to look into for August. But another saving of 1.29pts (cumul 18.73pts).

Today my lays started latish and finished very early. So I had a couple of back to lays early, both were rubbish, but then I began pre-race and in-play trading with £5 stakes. The pre race trading was good and I only had a couple of small reds, but the in-play trading...bloody hell, I had forgotten the buzz!

Of course, my memory is not completely tainted rose coloured and I recall how one mis-managed trade can wipe out three or four days of profit so I am not going to go mad, but I will carry on, where I have no lays in a race and time permits.

Lays:            -£58.15
Trading:          +16.67
Back to Lay:      -£4.00

Total:           -£45.48



Wed 30 Jul

I picked up a winner at 19.0, Chocamoca who had absolutely no claims on winng that race IMHO :) I did save another 2.49 points on omitted lays (cumul 17.44pts) so I will take the positives out of that.

After the last of my lays I was going to update my results and went to open iTunes to get some music rocking and inadvertently clicked on Geeks Toy next door to iTunes. As it opened I thought "Why not have a little look at the ladders for a bit?" I ended up doing a couple of back-to-lays and celebrated the end of the day with my 1p win :D :D :D

Lays:            -£99.77
Back to Lay:      +£0.01

Total:           -£99.76




Tue 29 Jul

Below I have highlighted the three lays I decided not to follow from my ratings and all three won saving me 11.75 pts (cumul 14.95pts). I have a chance of ending the month in profit :)

Lays:           +£108.17



Mon 28 Jul

Only a handful of lays again but a clean sweep although the prices were a tad high for some reason. And I saved 1.7 points (cumul 13.2) by filtering.

Lays:            +£44.03



Sun 27 Jul

Not many races for me today so it was typical that I picked up my largest priced winner...16.40 Pontefract and Compton Park wins at BSP 30.0..C'est la vie. I also lost 1.9 pts by taking out two successful lays but I am still +11.5 pts by doing this overall.

Lays:           -£159.88



Sat 26 Jul

Saturday was a lot better and a big confidence boost as my main lays all lost and I avoided a few winners with some careful filtering during the racing. It means I have to be at the PC when racing is on, but it's worth it when I saved 9.7 pts :))

Lays:            +£91.73



Fri 25 Jul

Friday brought my usual bunch of crap and a £90 loss.

Lays:            -£91.76



Thu 24 Jul

It's all a bit bollocks at the moment.

Lays:            +£16.82



Wed 23 Jul

My July See-Saw ride of winning day - losing day continues after picking up a winner at 7.4 in my first race of the day. About time I had a nice clean sweep day!

Lays:           -£64.28


 

Tue 22 Jul

Only three lays from Ballinrobe and all successful at odds of 2.98, 3.55 and 4.8 so very satisfying.

Lays:           +£60.24



Mon 21 Jul

Another kick in the goolies today - cant explain it. I comfort myself with the fact that I am still losing less than when I was trading LOL

Lays:           -£162.12



Sun 20 Jul

Sundays are usually a quiet affair so I was happy to get a clean sweep 6/6. I seem to be having a winning day followed by a losing one but the losses are quite heavy at the moment.

Lays:            +£99.33  



Sat 19 Jul

Very disappointing to pick up 4 winners on a Saturday.

Lays:           -£158.41

   




Fri 18 Jul

Not a disaster as previous Fridays have shown but still picked up a couple of winners to dilute the profit.

Lays:            +£33.87  




Thu 17 Jul

I felt a little let down with picking up the losing lay, as the statistics should very much be on my side at the moment. But there is Friday tomorrow, my worst day of the week. Eek!

Lays:            -£3.32



Wed 16 Jul

OK

Lays:           +£31.25




Tue 15 Jul

I suppose after Monday's bag of poo a clean sweep was on the cards.

Lays:            +£82.22
Gambles:          -£7.61

Total:           +£74.61



Mon 14 Jul

I could not put a foot right today. 5 unsuccessful lays from 9 selections is as poor as it gets!.
A big blow to the month's profit.

Lays:           -£267.69 
Gambles:         -£11.72

Total:          -£279.41





Sun 13 Jul

Should of stayed in the pub. The £2.50 loss included a £2.12 profit on the WC Final. Big deal.

Lays:             -£1.38
Gambles:          -£2.50

Total:            -£3.88


Sat 12 Jul

A nice Saturday getting back the losses I made on Friday, a step back a step forward! Where are the two steps forward?

Lays:           +£145.11
Gambles:         -£20.80

Total:          +£124.31



Fri 11 Jul

Another Black Friday for me - why is Friday so different to any other day of the week for me? This is a picture of the bot for a change. Notice some back to wins for small stakes on the left.

Lays:           -£121.74




Thu 10 Jul

Another day of insignificance No serious harm done but another loss.

Lays:            -£47.30
Gambles:          -£2.42

Total:           -£49.72


Wed 9 Jul

Not much to say about today...the 5.30 winner at Naas did the damage.

Lays:            -£56.46
Gambles:          +£3.18

Total:           -£53.28




Tue 8 Jul

I should have kicked myself last night...there I was on four successful lays from four selections and then I talked myself out of the last one. Chucked £22 away. Doh!

Lays:            +£90.42



Mon 7 Jul

After what should have been my success on Sunday I employed the same tactic on Monday and just watched Ayr, Newton Abbot and Roscommon just recording the lays there. I would have picked up two winners as well. So I only ended up with one lay that was successful.

Lays:            +£22.58



Sun 6 Jul

Not much going on today. My strike rates at Bellwestown and Ayr was poor so I reduced stakes to £2 just so I can record the results electronically and hit winners at 11.0 and 5.7, all in all Sunday was a bloody waste of time.

Lays:            +£12.87
Wimbledon:        +£1.30



TOTAL:           +£14.17




Sat 5 Jul

Well, I did his the three winners but at odds of 6.0, 5.50 and 2.6 I still managed a nice profit. And a lay on the Wimbledon Semi finals put me into three figure income :D and I successfully traded the outright market to secure £15 green whatever happens in the final today.

Lays:            +£96.83
Wimbledon:       +£13.34



TOTAL:          +£110.17



Mystic Meg
Trying to forecast what happens in racing is hard but to forecast results should be down to mathematics:

My forecast for Saturday 5 July. I have chosen quite a few horses that are favourites today so I expect I am going to hit a few winners. I have selected 23 horses but my guess is that only 18 will become lays. Based on the prices I have 3.28 expected winners. If I get three then I expect to make £18 profit at my stakes today. Hitting just two winners and I can be in three figure profit territory. Conversely hitting four winners I'll be in a three figure loss. It's a fine line...


Fri 4 Jul

Because Friday is my worst day of the week I was playing cautiously. Thing is, I had a funny feeling about Bellewstown and was in two minds about laying there. In the end I went ahead and caught a winner. But, as I posted in a comment to Trader Dave, sometimes we have to step outside our comfort zones in order to make things happen.

Lays:            +£65.81



Thu 3 Jul

Picking up a winning lay at odds of 9.6 in the last race of the day was a bit disappointing.

Lays:           -£161.00




Wed 2 Jul

Finally! The clean sweep day I was looking for :D

Lays:           +£326.28
Wimbledon:        +£2.20

TOTAL:          +£328.48



Tue 1 Jul

Not the start to the month that I wanted, of course. Two winners at odds of 2.46 and 5.0 and the implied losers from yesterday's odds was 2.22 losers so I could have done without one of them to keep the edge.

Had a straight win bet on Belgium to beat USA inside 90 minutes that missed by 2 minutes. Doh!

Lays:            -£16.44
World Cup:       -£15.10

TOTAL:           -£31.54


3 comments:

  1. Hiya Dean.

    Very nice work on 02/07 mate!

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hahaha...cheers Matey. I need a few more of those three figure days in the green, like you Dave, then I'll be a happier bunny!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hiya Dean.

    How's it going?

    Interested to hear why you passed on those 3 selections that won on the 29th. Seems like you might have something there? I take it that the manual intervention is helping?

    Cheers - Dave.

    ReplyDelete