August 2014

August 2014

if you want to change something in your life

Final Result for August

Lays:             +£1423.23     
Trading:            +£19.01
Free Bets          +£330.93

TOTAL             +£1773.17      

Sunday 31 August

Firstly, my apologies to regular readers on my lack of posts. Those of you running your own blogs will know that it is time consuming and can take the mind's focus from where it should be and that's in the racing or footy markets. So I decided to take a few days off the blog The next thing the end of the month arrives and I have not posted for over 3 weeks. I tell you, August has just flown by

For me it has been a pleasing month. The lays have performed really well. I know longer solely rely on my ratings to give me lays but use them in conjunction with form reading and as I write I have not had an unsuccessful lay since Saturday 23 Aug. My trading has been few and far between but I can see that my future does not lie there. And every time I was emailed an offer from a bookie I looked into whether I could make some guaranteed profits and that went well getting me a free £330 - its also why my overall profit does not agree with my Betfair account because I have some cash tied up in Sky, Bet365, BetVictor and Ladbrokes.  I have posted the Betfair P&L below but because of all the bookie shennanigans it does not reflect well what really went on in the month.

Overall it was a month of a lot of reflection about my skill set and where my strengths lie. So September will see the following:

1) Stick to laying horses. That's me, not trading or backs to lays, just straight horse lays.
2) Nabbing bookie offers but using just football...everytime I use horse racing I get it the wrong way round and end up with hundreds of pounds in bookie accounts and having to play through it before withdrawing.
3) Cancelling Geeks subscription - it will remove the temptation to trade.

So, if you are gambling or trading and feel that things are not taking the right direction I would recommend you take some time to assess yourself. Determine where your strengths and weaknesses lie and then change your gambling/trading to align them with your strengths and negate those weaknesses. Easier said than done, I know, but...

if you want to change something in your life...

then you have to change something in your life!

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Tue 5 Aug

First of all, I forgot to mention that I saved 2.25 points yesterday by omitting 9 selections and 4 of them went on to win...but at quite low prices.

Today was almost  a clean sweep. The one losing lay was late on at Cork and I had laid Aussie Guest. But almost from flag fall he looked very sharp. Once the horse got to 25% dob I had that feeling and put in a back bet that I didn't expect to be matched...it was and I managed to halve my liability. Of course he went on to win but I was happy with the £50 I nabbed from a layer in running.

Today I omitted 4 lays but they all lost so cost me a few points, cumul, incl yesterday, I am 8.58pts down on the omissions...still early days this month. 

Very busy day today up at the allotment...and it's all very fruitful, Steve. The sweetcorn are delicious and been a starter for us and the kids twice this week...three times after tomorrow! We all love them :D

Lays:              +£110.88

Mon 4 Aug

I had some Honey-Do's today so I only managed to trade for a few races and picked up a red in the first because I was rushing! My God...how many times has TraderDave and Caan said "Make sure you are in the right frame of mind before trading!"? So having got back from the shops and loaded Geeks and three minutes before flag fall I decide that's the right time to jump into a trade. FGS Dean - that's the right frame of mind is it? So a red to start.

Anyway, because time was short I decided I would trade five other races just to get back to break even...it took me four races and I stopped, as I was backwards and forwards to the PC all afternoon. That's OK when laying because I have all my ratings set out hours before racing starts - but not conducive to trading.

And with the laying I picked up two winners, at least one of those was on the cards statistically so it was not a disaster, just disappointing to end my short winning streak.

Lays:               -£29.83
Trading:             +£0.15 WOW!

TOTAL:              -£29.68

Sun 3 Aug

Responding to Dave's comment - I had a fabulous time, Dave. Market Rasen is in a lovely area of the country. And the course itself was equally as beautiful. Mind you, I've updated my course notes because I had always followed the Racing Post description of "undulating" but its not...small rise halfway down the back straight then a long trip downhill round the bend into the long flat straight finish. Horses that don't travel well up or downhill should not find Market Rasen a problem.

I spent a couple of hours Saturday afternoon looking at Sunday's cards and again on Sunday morning and then hacked into my home PC remotely and updated the bot with Sunday's racing. As with Saturday I omitted some races, 4/5 that cost me 1.96 points (cumul 7.03pts) but I stick to my long term view with these.

As for the rest of Sunday, well it was a nice clean sweep and the third day of profit in a row.

Lays:              +£104.56

Sat 2 Aug

I went away Saturday morning but set up the bot before I went. I also had a look at races where I thought my ratings were perhaps close or questionable. This was not easy so far in advance of racing and in hindsight I removed too may, 8 in all and only one of them won so that cost me 4.73 points (cumul 5.07pts) but I am still thinking along the lines that this will save me in the long term.

As it happened, I only picked up one other losing lay so ended up with a profit on the day and two profitable days in a row :)

Lays:               +£40.96

Fri 1 Aug

Some diary like updates a la Trader Dave :)

10.30
Regular readers will know that Fridays are not my best days. I can find no reason why, but the stats cant lie. So I wait with a small amount of trepidation to see what the day will bring.

17.45
Half way through my lays. I've omitted one so far and that won but at a low BSP 2.56, still its a £30 odd quid saving already. At the moment I'm about £55 up.

I decided to leave the PC for some long periods today to study the cards for tomorrow to get ahead. So my trading of races has not been frequent. But I made 5 trades during the afternoon and 4 were green (+1.16, +0.52, +1.25, +0.43) and only one red (-0.67) so they have done well.

I'm just going check the evening lays so see if I should omit any and then head off to the pub for a few hours. It's my Birthday on Sunday and we are going away tomorrow morning to stay in a swanky 5 Star hotel tomorrow night and eat in their Michelin starred restaurant. Then on Sunday we are off to Family Day at Market Rasen race course so I am unsure when the next update will be.

Sat 09.35
Well, I've been up since a tad after 5am to finish today's cards before we drive off to Lincolnshire so I have a few minutes to update on yesterday...omissions first - I left out three and one won but at a low price, so for the first time it cost me money, but 0.34 of a point so I'm not grumbling :)

The lays worked out well with 7 out of 7...more clean sweep days, please! As I said above, only five trades but another successful foray into the ladders :)

Lays:               +£96.75     
Trading:             +£2.69      

Total:              +£99.44      

July 2014

So, I can draw a line under July, £170 loss, but much improved over the £770 I wankered in June. As TraderDave points out in his comment below, the omitted lays are working well  and saved me approx £430. My underlying concern is that £770 loss in June compares with a real total of £600 in July. EEk. Have the wheels fallen off?

Just when I have doubts my old mate Mike (Dean Dashingly) posts a motivating comment! You are, as always, right, Mike. I'm nothing if not tenacious! Cheers Buddy.


July Result:    
Lays:           -£143.67
Trading:          +16.67
Back to Lay:      -£3.99
Free Bets/Arbs:   +£0.00
Tennis:          +£16.84
Gambles:         -£41.87
World Cup:       -£15.10

TOTAL:          -£171.12

Thu 31 Jul

The number of clean sweep days have been a real disappointment. The amount of single winners I am picking up reflects in the small loss for the month. The winner I picked up today was at 9.2 and I am surprised by the prices of the winners I am getting, the last three were at 9.2, 19.0 and 30.0. I know I am omitting some lower priced lays and that is something I will have to look into for August. But another saving of 1.29pts (cumul 18.73pts).

Today my lays started latish and finished very early. So I had a couple of back to lays early, both were rubbish, but then I began pre-race and in-play trading with £5 stakes. The pre race trading was good and I only had a couple of small reds, but the in-play trading...bloody hell, I had forgotten the buzz!

Of course, my memory is not completely tainted rose coloured and I recall how one mis-managed trade can wipe out three or four days of profit so I am not going to go mad, but I will carry on, where I have no lays in a race and time permits.

Lays:            -£58.15
Trading:          +16.67
Back to Lay:      -£4.00

Total:           -£45.48

Wed 30 Jul

I picked up a winner at 19.0, Chocamoca who had absolutely no claims on winng that race IMHO :) I did save another 2.49 points on omitted lays (cumul 17.44pts) so I will take the positives out of that.

After the last of my lays I was going to update my results and went to open iTunes to get some music rocking and inadvertently clicked on Geeks Toy next door to iTunes. As it opened I thought "Why not have a little look at the ladders for a bit?" I ended up doing a couple of back-to-lays and celebrated the end of the day with my 1p win :D :D :D

Lays:            -£99.77
Back to Lay:      +£0.01

Total:           -£99.76

Tue 29 Jul

Below I have highlighted the three lays I decided not to follow from my ratings and all three won saving me 11.75 pts (cumul 14.95pts). I have a chance of ending the month in profit :)

Lays:           +£108.17

Mon 28 Jul

Only a handful of lays again but a clean sweep although the prices were a tad high for some reason. And I saved 1.7 points (cumul 13.2) by filtering.

Lays:            +£44.03

Sun 27 Jul

Not many races for me today so it was typical that I picked up my largest priced winner...16.40 Pontefract and Compton Park wins at BSP 30.0..C'est la vie. I also lost 1.9 pts by taking out two successful lays but I am still +11.5 pts by doing this overall.

Lays:           -£159.88

Sat 26 Jul

Saturday was a lot better and a big confidence boost as my main lays all lost and I avoided a few winners with some careful filtering during the racing. It means I have to be at the PC when racing is on, but it's worth it when I saved 9.7 pts :))

Lays:            +£91.73

Fri 25 Jul

Friday brought my usual bunch of crap and a £90 loss.

Lays:            -£91.76

Thu 24 Jul

It's all a bit bollocks at the moment.

Lays:            +£16.82

Wed 23 Jul

My July See-Saw ride of winning day - losing day continues after picking up a winner at 7.4 in my first race of the day. About time I had a nice clean sweep day!

Lays:           -£64.28

 

Tue 22 Jul

Only three lays from Ballinrobe and all successful at odds of 2.98, 3.55 and 4.8 so very satisfying.

Lays:           +£60.24

Mon 21 Jul

Another kick in the goolies today - cant explain it. I comfort myself with the fact that I am still losing less than when I was trading LOL

Lays:           -£162.12

Sun 20 Jul

Sundays are usually a quiet affair so I was happy to get a clean sweep 6/6. I seem to be having a winning day followed by a losing one but the losses are quite heavy at the moment.

Lays:            +£99.33  

Sat 19 Jul

Very disappointing to pick up 4 winners on a Saturday.

Lays:           -£158.41

   




Fri 18 Jul

Not a disaster as previous Fridays have shown but still picked up a couple of winners to dilute the profit.

Lays:            +£33.87  

Thu 17 Jul

I felt a little let down with picking up the losing lay, as the statistics should very much be on my side at the moment. But there is Friday tomorrow, my worst day of the week. Eek!

Lays:            -£3.32

Wed 16 Jul

OK

Lays:           +£31.25

Tue 15 Jul

I suppose after Monday's bag of poo a clean sweep was on the cards.

Lays:            +£82.22
Gambles:          -£7.61

Total:           +£74.61

Mon 14 Jul

I could not put a foot right today. 5 unsuccessful lays from 9 selections is as poor as it gets!.
A big blow to the month's profit.

Lays:           -£267.69 
Gambles:         -£11.72

Total:          -£279.41

Sun 13 Jul

Should of stayed in the pub. The £2.50 loss included a £2.12 profit on the WC Final. Big deal.

Lays:             -£1.38
Gambles:          -£2.50

Total:            -£3.88

Sat 12 Jul

A nice Saturday getting back the losses I made on Friday, a step back a step forward! Where are the two steps forward?

Lays:           +£145.11
Gambles:         -£20.80

Total:          +£124.31

Fri 11 Jul

Another Black Friday for me - why is Friday so different to any other day of the week for me? This is a picture of the bot for a change. Notice some back to wins for small stakes on the left.

Lays:           -£121.74

Thu 10 Jul

Another day of insignificance No serious harm done but another loss.

Lays:            -£47.30
Gambles:          -£2.42

Total:           -£49.72

Wed 9 Jul

Not much to say about today...the 5.30 winner at Naas did the damage.

Lays:            -£56.46
Gambles:          +£3.18

Total:           -£53.28

Tue 8 Jul

I should have kicked myself last night...there I was on four successful lays from four selections and then I talked myself out of the last one. Chucked £22 away. Doh!

Lays:            +£90.42

Mon 7 Jul

After what should have been my success on Sunday I employed the same tactic on Monday and just watched Ayr, Newton Abbot and Roscommon just recording the lays there. I would have picked up two winners as well. So I only ended up with one lay that was successful.

Lays:            +£22.58

Sun 6 Jul

Not much going on today. My strike rates at Bellwestown and Ayr was poor so I reduced stakes to £2 just so I can record the results electronically and hit winners at 11.0 and 5.7, all in all Sunday was a bloody waste of time.

Lays:            +£12.87
Wimbledon:        +£1.30



TOTAL:           +£14.17

Sat 5 Jul

Well, I did his the three winners but at odds of 6.0, 5.50 and 2.6 I still managed a nice profit. And a lay on the Wimbledon Semi finals put me into three figure income :D and I successfully traded the outright market to secure £15 green whatever happens in the final today.

Lays:            +£96.83
Wimbledon:       +£13.34



TOTAL:          +£110.17



Mystic Meg
Trying to forecast what happens in racing is hard but to forecast results should be down to mathematics:

My forecast for Saturday 5 July. I have chosen quite a few horses that are favourites today so I expect I am going to hit a few winners. I have selected 23 horses but my guess is that only 18 will become lays. Based on the prices I have 3.28 expected winners. If I get three then I expect to make £18 profit at my stakes today. Hitting just two winners and I can be in three figure profit territory. Conversely hitting four winners I'll be in a three figure loss. It's a fine line...


Fri 4 Jul

Because Friday is my worst day of the week I was playing cautiously. Thing is, I had a funny feeling about Bellewstown and was in two minds about laying there. In the end I went ahead and caught a winner. But, as I posted in a comment to Trader Dave, sometimes we have to step outside our comfort zones in order to make things happen.

Lays:            +£65.81

Thu 3 Jul

Picking up a winning lay at odds of 9.6 in the last race of the day was a bit disappointing.

Lays:           -£161.00

Wed 2 Jul

Finally! The clean sweep day I was looking for :D

Lays:           +£326.28
Wimbledon:        +£2.20

TOTAL:          +£328.48

Tue 1 Jul

Not the start to the month that I wanted, of course. Two winners at odds of 2.46 and 5.0 and the implied losers from yesterday's odds was 2.22 losers so I could have done without one of them to keep the edge.

Had a straight win bet on Belgium to beat USA inside 90 minutes that missed by 2 minutes. Doh!

Lays:            -£16.44
World Cup:       -£15.10

TOTAL:           -£31.54