September 2014

SEPTEMBER 2014

September so far:

Lays:                                      22
Successful Lays:                           19
Number of unsuccessful Lays:                3
Implied Number of unsuccessful Lays:      3.0 ** 
Strike Rate:                             86.4%
Average Prices Taken all lays:           10.64
Average Prices Taken losing lays:         9.37

Lay Profit / (loss) to date:           £(55.97)
Bonus Profit / (loss) to date:           £2.40 

** The implied number of lays are the statistical number of losing lay bets based on their implied chance of winning as calculated by the odds. Providing my actual losing lays is under the implied losing lays it means I have an edge.

Allotment, Allotment, Allotment

We have just doubled the allotment in size and now have 500 square metres, great for the new season, but the second plot looks like this:

This is after I had strimmed off the weeds and applied some weed killer. So I am spending a lot of time up there while the weather is fabulous. In fact, I was up there so long yesterday the grass grew round my bike! :O

So my updates will be a tad sporadic until the wet weather arrives :)



Why my Betfair ccreen shots are becoming meaningless
Because my bookie-bonus-steals really distort what's happening in my Betfair account...here is a Ladbrokes bonus that I will nab come Saturday lunchtime:

So I will just add a P&L total to my statistics section and post up Betfair screenshots when they show something meaningful.

Tue 9 Sep
I'll be trying my skill on these today...should get, maybe, two or three lays out of these scabby goats:

15.30	Redcar Barney McGrew (IRE)
16.00	Redcar Almuheet
16.20	Leicester Take A Note
17.05	Redcar Waltz Darling (IRE)
18.50	Galway Drop Anchor (IRE)

Mon 8 Sep UPDATE

After my individual filters were appied I only ended up with Ding Ding as my only lay today and a successful one at that. The others all lost too, but only Ding Ding had my money round it's neck :)

Tuesday's selections will be up early as I only have Galway to complete having done the UK meetings during the afternoon. My plan is to spend a day at the allotment tomorrow...crack on!

Mon 8 Sep

So, I'll continue to focus on the positives and crack on :)  I have a couple of bookie bonuses to turn into cash over the next few days and there are all the lays to look forward to. I've just done a nice and easy 13 mile bike ride in the sun...Life's good!

16.30	Brighton Bishop Wulstan (IRE)
17.00	Brighton Ding Ding
17.05	Galway Laviniad (IRE)
18.05	Galway Port Merrion (IRE)

Result Sep Week One

So I am one week into September and my run of 49 successful lays in a row came to an end in resounding style. But this demonstrates how one should not focus on daily profits or even weekly, maybe even monthly...because gambling results have ups and downs and focusing on daily profits (or losses) can have a negative effect on your outlook and focus. OK...so far in September I have made a loss...so what, all that has happened is the very good August has been diluted by the statistics evening themselves out over the first week of September.

The amounts in total are not exact because I would have to screen shot all my other bookie accounts to show movements in total and that would be too time consuming for the purposes of this blog.

Result Update Sat/Sun

Sat: 2 no bets, 3 successes and Go Far won at 7.4,
Sun: 3/3 successful

Sun 7 Sep
Update to follow soon...busy, busy, busy...and now beer o'clock!

16:05	York Gambol (FR)
16:30	Dundalk Anner Queen (IRE)
17:00	Dundalk The Dancing Lord

Sat 6 Sep
I prepped some of the meetings yesterday and I started at 6.30am this morning on today's so I hope to have them posted up later but I have a busy afternoon, evening and Sunday morning so I may have to skip tomorrow, but I'll see if time favours me...back later with today's...

15:40	Thir Master The World (IRE)
16:20	Thir Bop It
17:45	Wolv Mendacious Harpy (IRE)
17:50	Kemp Dutch Art Dealer
18:50	Wolv Flying Power
20:20	Wolv Go Far

Fri 5 Sep UPDATE
Doesn't that always happen?? I go 49 lays without a winner then I get two consecutively! Actually, I don't mind...the strike rate was going through the roof and I had been waiting for the inevitable winner before increasing stakes...I would have increased yesterday evening but I was in the pub LOL

15.00 Hayd Cruise Tothelimit  (no bet...was fave)
15.35 Hayd Poyle Vinnie success at 6.00
16.45 Hayd Pearl Nation FIRST at 8.2
17.55 Hayd William Of Orange FIRST at 12.5
18.40 Muss Ixelles Diamond (no bet, minimum runners)
20.50 Kemp Solidarity success at 7.00

Fri 5 Sep
So, a no bet day yesterday under rule 3...even though the selection lost I am happy using my criteria rule to avoid possible losses.

Today; I sorted out most of these last night so all I had to do this morning was to check the going reports and make a note of the overnight price movements. Now, the bot is loaded and I do not have to be tied to the PC today:

15.00 Hayd Cruise Tothelimit
15.35 Hayd Poyle Vinnie
16.45 Hayd Pearl Nation
17.55 Hayd William Of Orange
18.40 Muss Ixelles Diamond (provided drifts to second fave or worse)
20.50 Kemp Solidarity


Thu 4 Sep
WARNING: It's now 48 lays since I've had an unsuccessful one. Surely that winning one is imminent!

Another late night last night but, once again, I have finished early today and will be off to the allotment shortly for a good speight of digging!  :D

Today's scabby goat (thanks for the term TraderDave!):

14.30 Haydock Starlight Serenade - providing that Well Shake Hands goes off favourite, otherwise a no bet day)


Wed 3 Sep UPDATE
3 successful lays yesterday at 9.8, 6 and 19.5

Wed 3 Sep
I was up until quite late last night preparing for today's racing and up at 7am this morning. While I am a tad tired it's now 10am and I am finished for the day so that's a fabulous upside!

I'll continue to post my lays while I have the time to do so.

So, today's three lays are:

18.30 Gowran Park Hes Our Music (IRE)

19.00 Gowran Park Uncharted Waters (IRE)

19.40 Kempton Blazeofenchantment (USA)

Tue 2 Sep UPDATE

I will be laying Flying Bear and Jungle Bay in the 8.20 and 8.50 races this evening providing neither are backed into favouritism and at least 8 runners run.. Cosquillas was unplaced at around 7/1. The rest all lost too. :)
Tue 2 Sep

Provided at least 8 run in these races then I'll be laying these nags this afternoon. I still have the Kempton card to go through...I'll do that later. I've also got a £5 free bet from Sky to turn into cash today :)

If Moon Over Rio gets supported below 5.0 I'll avoid.

14:40	Hamilton	Cosquillas (IRE)
16:25	Hamilton	Rockawango (FR)
17:00	Hamilton	Salvatore Fury (IRE)
17:20	Carlisle	Moon Over Rio (IRE)

Mon 1 Sep UPDATE

Storm Rider was easily beaten and added some more to the coffers. Storm's tissue price was 4.5 and went off at 7.0 showing the lack of market respect that I shared.

The other three went off as favourites and Millington duly won at 4.6 after a tissue price of 6.0 was fairly well supported.

I'll be back later after I have completed my reading for today.

Mon 1 Sep

I've not had an unsuccessful lay in 9 days so I know that unsuccessful lay is just around the corner...lets see if I can put the mockers on it by sharing today's lay: 16.10 Leicester Storm Rider.

Also, I have three favourites 5.10 Leic Elizona, 5.15 Roscommon Millington and 5.40 Leic Top Offer...if any of these drift during the day and become not favourite I'll be laying their arses off.

I really need that winning lay because I want to seriously up stakes, but with the strike rate at an all time high I want to wait for the unsuccessful lay before I part with more cash. :D

Cheers,

Dean