September 2014

SEPTEMBER 2014

September so far:

Lays:                                      22
Successful Lays:                           19
Number of unsuccessful Lays:                3
Implied Number of unsuccessful Lays:      3.0 ** 
Strike Rate:                             86.4%
Average Prices Taken all lays:           10.64
Average Prices Taken losing lays:         9.37

Lay Profit / (loss) to date:           £(55.97)
Bonus Profit / (loss) to date:           £2.40 

** The implied number of lays are the statistical number of losing lay bets based on their implied chance of winning as calculated by the odds. Providing my actual losing lays is under the implied losing lays it means I have an edge.

Allotment, Allotment, Allotment

We have just doubled the allotment in size and now have 500 square metres, great for the new season, but the second plot looks like this:

This is after I had strimmed off the weeds and applied some weed killer. So I am spending a lot of time up there while the weather is fabulous. In fact, I was up there so long yesterday the grass grew round my bike! :O

So my updates will be a tad sporadic until the wet weather arrives :)



Why my Betfair ccreen shots are becoming meaningless
Because my bookie-bonus-steals really distort what's happening in my Betfair account...here is a Ladbrokes bonus that I will nab come Saturday lunchtime:

So I will just add a P&L total to my statistics section and post up Betfair screenshots when they show something meaningful.

Tue 9 Sep
I'll be trying my skill on these today...should get, maybe, two or three lays out of these scabby goats:

15.30	Redcar Barney McGrew (IRE)
16.00	Redcar Almuheet
16.20	Leicester Take A Note
17.05	Redcar Waltz Darling (IRE)
18.50	Galway Drop Anchor (IRE)

Mon 8 Sep UPDATE

After my individual filters were appied I only ended up with Ding Ding as my only lay today and a successful one at that. The others all lost too, but only Ding Ding had my money round it's neck :)

Tuesday's selections will be up early as I only have Galway to complete having done the UK meetings during the afternoon. My plan is to spend a day at the allotment tomorrow...crack on!

Mon 8 Sep

So, I'll continue to focus on the positives and crack on :)  I have a couple of bookie bonuses to turn into cash over the next few days and there are all the lays to look forward to. I've just done a nice and easy 13 mile bike ride in the sun...Life's good!

16.30	Brighton Bishop Wulstan (IRE)
17.00	Brighton Ding Ding
17.05	Galway Laviniad (IRE)
18.05	Galway Port Merrion (IRE)

Result Sep Week One

So I am one week into September and my run of 49 successful lays in a row came to an end in resounding style. But this demonstrates how one should not focus on daily profits or even weekly, maybe even monthly...because gambling results have ups and downs and focusing on daily profits (or losses) can have a negative effect on your outlook and focus. OK...so far in September I have made a loss...so what, all that has happened is the very good August has been diluted by the statistics evening themselves out over the first week of September.

The amounts in total are not exact because I would have to screen shot all my other bookie accounts to show movements in total and that would be too time consuming for the purposes of this blog.

Result Update Sat/Sun

Sat: 2 no bets, 3 successes and Go Far won at 7.4,
Sun: 3/3 successful

Sun 7 Sep
Update to follow soon...busy, busy, busy...and now beer o'clock!

16:05	York Gambol (FR)
16:30	Dundalk Anner Queen (IRE)
17:00	Dundalk The Dancing Lord

Sat 6 Sep
I prepped some of the meetings yesterday and I started at 6.30am this morning on today's so I hope to have them posted up later but I have a busy afternoon, evening and Sunday morning so I may have to skip tomorrow, but I'll see if time favours me...back later with today's...

15:40	Thir Master The World (IRE)
16:20	Thir Bop It
17:45	Wolv Mendacious Harpy (IRE)
17:50	Kemp Dutch Art Dealer
18:50	Wolv Flying Power
20:20	Wolv Go Far

Fri 5 Sep UPDATE
Doesn't that always happen?? I go 49 lays without a winner then I get two consecutively! Actually, I don't mind...the strike rate was going through the roof and I had been waiting for the inevitable winner before increasing stakes...I would have increased yesterday evening but I was in the pub LOL

15.00 Hayd Cruise Tothelimit  (no bet...was fave)
15.35 Hayd Poyle Vinnie success at 6.00
16.45 Hayd Pearl Nation FIRST at 8.2
17.55 Hayd William Of Orange FIRST at 12.5
18.40 Muss Ixelles Diamond (no bet, minimum runners)
20.50 Kemp Solidarity success at 7.00

Fri 5 Sep
So, a no bet day yesterday under rule 3...even though the selection lost I am happy using my criteria rule to avoid possible losses.

Today; I sorted out most of these last night so all I had to do this morning was to check the going reports and make a note of the overnight price movements. Now, the bot is loaded and I do not have to be tied to the PC today:

15.00 Hayd Cruise Tothelimit
15.35 Hayd Poyle Vinnie
16.45 Hayd Pearl Nation
17.55 Hayd William Of Orange
18.40 Muss Ixelles Diamond (provided drifts to second fave or worse)
20.50 Kemp Solidarity


Thu 4 Sep
WARNING: It's now 48 lays since I've had an unsuccessful one. Surely that winning one is imminent!

Another late night last night but, once again, I have finished early today and will be off to the allotment shortly for a good speight of digging!  :D

Today's scabby goat (thanks for the term TraderDave!):

14.30 Haydock Starlight Serenade - providing that Well Shake Hands goes off favourite, otherwise a no bet day)


Wed 3 Sep UPDATE
3 successful lays yesterday at 9.8, 6 and 19.5

Wed 3 Sep
I was up until quite late last night preparing for today's racing and up at 7am this morning. While I am a tad tired it's now 10am and I am finished for the day so that's a fabulous upside!

I'll continue to post my lays while I have the time to do so.

So, today's three lays are:

18.30 Gowran Park Hes Our Music (IRE)

19.00 Gowran Park Uncharted Waters (IRE)

19.40 Kempton Blazeofenchantment (USA)

Tue 2 Sep UPDATE

I will be laying Flying Bear and Jungle Bay in the 8.20 and 8.50 races this evening providing neither are backed into favouritism and at least 8 runners run.. Cosquillas was unplaced at around 7/1. The rest all lost too. :)
Tue 2 Sep

Provided at least 8 run in these races then I'll be laying these nags this afternoon. I still have the Kempton card to go through...I'll do that later. I've also got a £5 free bet from Sky to turn into cash today :)

If Moon Over Rio gets supported below 5.0 I'll avoid.

14:40	Hamilton	Cosquillas (IRE)
16:25	Hamilton	Rockawango (FR)
17:00	Hamilton	Salvatore Fury (IRE)
17:20	Carlisle	Moon Over Rio (IRE)

Mon 1 Sep UPDATE

Storm Rider was easily beaten and added some more to the coffers. Storm's tissue price was 4.5 and went off at 7.0 showing the lack of market respect that I shared.

The other three went off as favourites and Millington duly won at 4.6 after a tissue price of 6.0 was fairly well supported.

I'll be back later after I have completed my reading for today.

Mon 1 Sep

I've not had an unsuccessful lay in 9 days so I know that unsuccessful lay is just around the corner...lets see if I can put the mockers on it by sharing today's lay: 16.10 Leicester Storm Rider.

Also, I have three favourites 5.10 Leic Elizona, 5.15 Roscommon Millington and 5.40 Leic Top Offer...if any of these drift during the day and become not favourite I'll be laying their arses off.

I really need that winning lay because I want to seriously up stakes, but with the strike rate at an all time high I want to wait for the unsuccessful lay before I part with more cash. :D

Cheers,

Dean

August 2014

August 2014

if you want to change something in your life

Final Result for August

Lays:             +£1423.23     
Trading:            +£19.01
Free Bets          +£330.93

TOTAL             +£1773.17      

Sunday 31 August

Firstly, my apologies to regular readers on my lack of posts. Those of you running your own blogs will know that it is time consuming and can take the mind's focus from where it should be and that's in the racing or footy markets. So I decided to take a few days off the blog The next thing the end of the month arrives and I have not posted for over 3 weeks. I tell you, August has just flown by

For me it has been a pleasing month. The lays have performed really well. I know longer solely rely on my ratings to give me lays but use them in conjunction with form reading and as I write I have not had an unsuccessful lay since Saturday 23 Aug. My trading has been few and far between but I can see that my future does not lie there. And every time I was emailed an offer from a bookie I looked into whether I could make some guaranteed profits and that went well getting me a free £330 - its also why my overall profit does not agree with my Betfair account because I have some cash tied up in Sky, Bet365, BetVictor and Ladbrokes.  I have posted the Betfair P&L below but because of all the bookie shennanigans it does not reflect well what really went on in the month.

Overall it was a month of a lot of reflection about my skill set and where my strengths lie. So September will see the following:

1) Stick to laying horses. That's me, not trading or backs to lays, just straight horse lays.
2) Nabbing bookie offers but using just football...everytime I use horse racing I get it the wrong way round and end up with hundreds of pounds in bookie accounts and having to play through it before withdrawing.
3) Cancelling Geeks subscription - it will remove the temptation to trade.

So, if you are gambling or trading and feel that things are not taking the right direction I would recommend you take some time to assess yourself. Determine where your strengths and weaknesses lie and then change your gambling/trading to align them with your strengths and negate those weaknesses. Easier said than done, I know, but...

if you want to change something in your life...

then you have to change something in your life!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tue 5 Aug

First of all, I forgot to mention that I saved 2.25 points yesterday by omitting 9 selections and 4 of them went on to win...but at quite low prices.

Today was almost  a clean sweep. The one losing lay was late on at Cork and I had laid Aussie Guest. But almost from flag fall he looked very sharp. Once the horse got to 25% dob I had that feeling and put in a back bet that I didn't expect to be matched...it was and I managed to halve my liability. Of course he went on to win but I was happy with the £50 I nabbed from a layer in running.

Today I omitted 4 lays but they all lost so cost me a few points, cumul, incl yesterday, I am 8.58pts down on the omissions...still early days this month. 

Very busy day today up at the allotment...and it's all very fruitful, Steve. The sweetcorn are delicious and been a starter for us and the kids twice this week...three times after tomorrow! We all love them :D

Lays:              +£110.88

Mon 4 Aug

I had some Honey-Do's today so I only managed to trade for a few races and picked up a red in the first because I was rushing! My God...how many times has TraderDave and Caan said "Make sure you are in the right frame of mind before trading!"? So having got back from the shops and loaded Geeks and three minutes before flag fall I decide that's the right time to jump into a trade. FGS Dean - that's the right frame of mind is it? So a red to start.

Anyway, because time was short I decided I would trade five other races just to get back to break even...it took me four races and I stopped, as I was backwards and forwards to the PC all afternoon. That's OK when laying because I have all my ratings set out hours before racing starts - but not conducive to trading.

And with the laying I picked up two winners, at least one of those was on the cards statistically so it was not a disaster, just disappointing to end my short winning streak.

Lays:               -£29.83
Trading:             +£0.15 WOW!

TOTAL:              -£29.68

Sun 3 Aug

Responding to Dave's comment - I had a fabulous time, Dave. Market Rasen is in a lovely area of the country. And the course itself was equally as beautiful. Mind you, I've updated my course notes because I had always followed the Racing Post description of "undulating" but its not...small rise halfway down the back straight then a long trip downhill round the bend into the long flat straight finish. Horses that don't travel well up or downhill should not find Market Rasen a problem.

I spent a couple of hours Saturday afternoon looking at Sunday's cards and again on Sunday morning and then hacked into my home PC remotely and updated the bot with Sunday's racing. As with Saturday I omitted some races, 4/5 that cost me 1.96 points (cumul 7.03pts) but I stick to my long term view with these.

As for the rest of Sunday, well it was a nice clean sweep and the third day of profit in a row.

Lays:              +£104.56

Sat 2 Aug

I went away Saturday morning but set up the bot before I went. I also had a look at races where I thought my ratings were perhaps close or questionable. This was not easy so far in advance of racing and in hindsight I removed too may, 8 in all and only one of them won so that cost me 4.73 points (cumul 5.07pts) but I am still thinking along the lines that this will save me in the long term.

As it happened, I only picked up one other losing lay so ended up with a profit on the day and two profitable days in a row :)

Lays:               +£40.96

Fri 1 Aug

Some diary like updates a la Trader Dave :)

10.30
Regular readers will know that Fridays are not my best days. I can find no reason why, but the stats cant lie. So I wait with a small amount of trepidation to see what the day will bring.

17.45
Half way through my lays. I've omitted one so far and that won but at a low BSP 2.56, still its a £30 odd quid saving already. At the moment I'm about £55 up.

I decided to leave the PC for some long periods today to study the cards for tomorrow to get ahead. So my trading of races has not been frequent. But I made 5 trades during the afternoon and 4 were green (+1.16, +0.52, +1.25, +0.43) and only one red (-0.67) so they have done well.

I'm just going check the evening lays so see if I should omit any and then head off to the pub for a few hours. It's my Birthday on Sunday and we are going away tomorrow morning to stay in a swanky 5 Star hotel tomorrow night and eat in their Michelin starred restaurant. Then on Sunday we are off to Family Day at Market Rasen race course so I am unsure when the next update will be.

Sat 09.35
Well, I've been up since a tad after 5am to finish today's cards before we drive off to Lincolnshire so I have a few minutes to update on yesterday...omissions first - I left out three and one won but at a low price, so for the first time it cost me money, but 0.34 of a point so I'm not grumbling :)

The lays worked out well with 7 out of 7...more clean sweep days, please! As I said above, only five trades but another successful foray into the ladders :)

Lays:               +£96.75     
Trading:             +£2.69      

Total:              +£99.44      

July 2014

So, I can draw a line under July, £170 loss, but much improved over the £770 I wankered in June. As TraderDave points out in his comment below, the omitted lays are working well  and saved me approx £430. My underlying concern is that £770 loss in June compares with a real total of £600 in July. EEk. Have the wheels fallen off?

Just when I have doubts my old mate Mike (Dean Dashingly) posts a motivating comment! You are, as always, right, Mike. I'm nothing if not tenacious! Cheers Buddy.


July Result:    
Lays:           -£143.67
Trading:          +16.67
Back to Lay:      -£3.99
Free Bets/Arbs:   +£0.00
Tennis:          +£16.84
Gambles:         -£41.87
World Cup:       -£15.10

TOTAL:          -£171.12

Thu 31 Jul

The number of clean sweep days have been a real disappointment. The amount of single winners I am picking up reflects in the small loss for the month. The winner I picked up today was at 9.2 and I am surprised by the prices of the winners I am getting, the last three were at 9.2, 19.0 and 30.0. I know I am omitting some lower priced lays and that is something I will have to look into for August. But another saving of 1.29pts (cumul 18.73pts).

Today my lays started latish and finished very early. So I had a couple of back to lays early, both were rubbish, but then I began pre-race and in-play trading with £5 stakes. The pre race trading was good and I only had a couple of small reds, but the in-play trading...bloody hell, I had forgotten the buzz!

Of course, my memory is not completely tainted rose coloured and I recall how one mis-managed trade can wipe out three or four days of profit so I am not going to go mad, but I will carry on, where I have no lays in a race and time permits.

Lays:            -£58.15
Trading:          +16.67
Back to Lay:      -£4.00

Total:           -£45.48

Wed 30 Jul

I picked up a winner at 19.0, Chocamoca who had absolutely no claims on winng that race IMHO :) I did save another 2.49 points on omitted lays (cumul 17.44pts) so I will take the positives out of that.

After the last of my lays I was going to update my results and went to open iTunes to get some music rocking and inadvertently clicked on Geeks Toy next door to iTunes. As it opened I thought "Why not have a little look at the ladders for a bit?" I ended up doing a couple of back-to-lays and celebrated the end of the day with my 1p win :D :D :D

Lays:            -£99.77
Back to Lay:      +£0.01

Total:           -£99.76

Tue 29 Jul

Below I have highlighted the three lays I decided not to follow from my ratings and all three won saving me 11.75 pts (cumul 14.95pts). I have a chance of ending the month in profit :)

Lays:           +£108.17

Mon 28 Jul

Only a handful of lays again but a clean sweep although the prices were a tad high for some reason. And I saved 1.7 points (cumul 13.2) by filtering.

Lays:            +£44.03

Sun 27 Jul

Not many races for me today so it was typical that I picked up my largest priced winner...16.40 Pontefract and Compton Park wins at BSP 30.0..C'est la vie. I also lost 1.9 pts by taking out two successful lays but I am still +11.5 pts by doing this overall.

Lays:           -£159.88

Sat 26 Jul

Saturday was a lot better and a big confidence boost as my main lays all lost and I avoided a few winners with some careful filtering during the racing. It means I have to be at the PC when racing is on, but it's worth it when I saved 9.7 pts :))

Lays:            +£91.73

Fri 25 Jul

Friday brought my usual bunch of crap and a £90 loss.

Lays:            -£91.76

Thu 24 Jul

It's all a bit bollocks at the moment.

Lays:            +£16.82

Wed 23 Jul

My July See-Saw ride of winning day - losing day continues after picking up a winner at 7.4 in my first race of the day. About time I had a nice clean sweep day!

Lays:           -£64.28

 

Tue 22 Jul

Only three lays from Ballinrobe and all successful at odds of 2.98, 3.55 and 4.8 so very satisfying.

Lays:           +£60.24

Mon 21 Jul

Another kick in the goolies today - cant explain it. I comfort myself with the fact that I am still losing less than when I was trading LOL

Lays:           -£162.12

Sun 20 Jul

Sundays are usually a quiet affair so I was happy to get a clean sweep 6/6. I seem to be having a winning day followed by a losing one but the losses are quite heavy at the moment.

Lays:            +£99.33  

Sat 19 Jul

Very disappointing to pick up 4 winners on a Saturday.

Lays:           -£158.41

   




Fri 18 Jul

Not a disaster as previous Fridays have shown but still picked up a couple of winners to dilute the profit.

Lays:            +£33.87  

Thu 17 Jul

I felt a little let down with picking up the losing lay, as the statistics should very much be on my side at the moment. But there is Friday tomorrow, my worst day of the week. Eek!

Lays:            -£3.32

Wed 16 Jul

OK

Lays:           +£31.25

Tue 15 Jul

I suppose after Monday's bag of poo a clean sweep was on the cards.

Lays:            +£82.22
Gambles:          -£7.61

Total:           +£74.61

Mon 14 Jul

I could not put a foot right today. 5 unsuccessful lays from 9 selections is as poor as it gets!.
A big blow to the month's profit.

Lays:           -£267.69 
Gambles:         -£11.72

Total:          -£279.41

Sun 13 Jul

Should of stayed in the pub. The £2.50 loss included a £2.12 profit on the WC Final. Big deal.

Lays:             -£1.38
Gambles:          -£2.50

Total:            -£3.88

Sat 12 Jul

A nice Saturday getting back the losses I made on Friday, a step back a step forward! Where are the two steps forward?

Lays:           +£145.11
Gambles:         -£20.80

Total:          +£124.31

Fri 11 Jul

Another Black Friday for me - why is Friday so different to any other day of the week for me? This is a picture of the bot for a change. Notice some back to wins for small stakes on the left.

Lays:           -£121.74

Thu 10 Jul

Another day of insignificance No serious harm done but another loss.

Lays:            -£47.30
Gambles:          -£2.42

Total:           -£49.72

Wed 9 Jul

Not much to say about today...the 5.30 winner at Naas did the damage.

Lays:            -£56.46
Gambles:          +£3.18

Total:           -£53.28

Tue 8 Jul

I should have kicked myself last night...there I was on four successful lays from four selections and then I talked myself out of the last one. Chucked £22 away. Doh!

Lays:            +£90.42

Mon 7 Jul

After what should have been my success on Sunday I employed the same tactic on Monday and just watched Ayr, Newton Abbot and Roscommon just recording the lays there. I would have picked up two winners as well. So I only ended up with one lay that was successful.

Lays:            +£22.58

Sun 6 Jul

Not much going on today. My strike rates at Bellwestown and Ayr was poor so I reduced stakes to £2 just so I can record the results electronically and hit winners at 11.0 and 5.7, all in all Sunday was a bloody waste of time.

Lays:            +£12.87
Wimbledon:        +£1.30



TOTAL:           +£14.17

Sat 5 Jul

Well, I did his the three winners but at odds of 6.0, 5.50 and 2.6 I still managed a nice profit. And a lay on the Wimbledon Semi finals put me into three figure income :D and I successfully traded the outright market to secure £15 green whatever happens in the final today.

Lays:            +£96.83
Wimbledon:       +£13.34



TOTAL:          +£110.17



Mystic Meg
Trying to forecast what happens in racing is hard but to forecast results should be down to mathematics:

My forecast for Saturday 5 July. I have chosen quite a few horses that are favourites today so I expect I am going to hit a few winners. I have selected 23 horses but my guess is that only 18 will become lays. Based on the prices I have 3.28 expected winners. If I get three then I expect to make £18 profit at my stakes today. Hitting just two winners and I can be in three figure profit territory. Conversely hitting four winners I'll be in a three figure loss. It's a fine line...


Fri 4 Jul

Because Friday is my worst day of the week I was playing cautiously. Thing is, I had a funny feeling about Bellewstown and was in two minds about laying there. In the end I went ahead and caught a winner. But, as I posted in a comment to Trader Dave, sometimes we have to step outside our comfort zones in order to make things happen.

Lays:            +£65.81

Thu 3 Jul

Picking up a winning lay at odds of 9.6 in the last race of the day was a bit disappointing.

Lays:           -£161.00

Wed 2 Jul

Finally! The clean sweep day I was looking for :D

Lays:           +£326.28
Wimbledon:        +£2.20

TOTAL:          +£328.48

Tue 1 Jul

Not the start to the month that I wanted, of course. Two winners at odds of 2.46 and 5.0 and the implied losers from yesterday's odds was 2.22 losers so I could have done without one of them to keep the edge.

Had a straight win bet on Belgium to beat USA inside 90 minutes that missed by 2 minutes. Doh!

Lays:            -£16.44
World Cup:       -£15.10

TOTAL:           -£31.54

Analysing June

I just wanted to make a quick post about what happened in June. 

Up to the beginning of June I laid horses with an average BSP of  around 9.0. Then I added a new method for selecting lower priced horses. Was this part of the problem?

Actually, no, in fact quite the opposite. There were 184 lays with an average price of 3.64 and these brought a handy profit back into the moment.

I just wanted to say a few words about the "expected" number of winners (or losers) that a method should generate. if you were to add up the expected chance of each selection then you would have the number of expected winners (or losers). When you compare that to the actual number of winners (or losers) then you can gauge if you are ahead of the game or not. (I'll cover this in more detail in the "My Advice" section soon).

For the three month period April to June there were 642 lays at an average price of 8.7 and 79 were unsuccessful against an expected number of losing lays of 101. So quite acceptable. But taking June on its own there were 224 at and average price of 8.7 and 34 losing lays against expected of 35. That shows me that I had no "edge" in June and that I could just have easily stuck a pin in each race-card to determine my lays.

Let me try to lay that out in a better way:

Main Laying Method       Apr-June  June    1-14 Jun   15-30 Jun

Selections                 642       224       83         141

Actual Losing Lays          79        34       16          18

Expected Losing Lays       101        35       13          22

Strike Rate               87.7%     84.8%    80.7%       87.2%

As you can see, the two week period at the start of June had a considerable effect on the month as a whole.

So, my conclusions are twofold:

1) The introduction of lower priced lays improved the situation for the month and I have no reason to believe they will not continue to perform well.

2) I am concluding that the unusual start to the month was, effectively, my expected losing streak and, while this is likely to happen again, it does not represent a death knoll to my methods.

I'm with TraderDave on this one:

POSITIVE MENTAL ATTITUDE!

June 2014

Final Result for June:    
Lays:           -£857.53
Free Bets:       +£16.62
Wimbledon:        +£1.67
World Cup:       +£65.00

TOTAL:          -£774.24

Mon 30 Jun

Monday is one of my better days of the week and I managed only one losing lay. Still, the clean sweep days that I enjoyed during May have been sadly lacking from June.

And then the World Cup...I had France and Germany in a double. Germant scored two minutes too lat for me to collect that one. But I had previously laid off some of that bet after France took so long to dispatch Nigeria.

Yesterday:    
Lays:            +£69.44
World Cup:        -£6.47

TOTAL:           +£62.97

Sun 29 Jun

Not much to shout about today. Hit a winner but remained in profit at the end. In the evening I watched the footy and I had all my green riding on Costa Rica (small red on Greece because I was trading manuallt on the sofa on my iPad) and then Greece scored in 90th minute to deny me a nice green on trading that game...that goal cost me a few bob!

Yesterday:    
Lays:            +£21.91
World Cup:        -£1.44

TOTAL:           +£20.47

Sat 28 Jun

After the "positive" result by changing stakes at those courses, I did the same again today. The result from Doncaster, Newcastle abnd Curragh was a loss of 3.16 points, about £60. Unfortunately I ran into a couple of larger priced winners at Lingfield and Windsor as well.

Yesterday:    
Lays:           -£170.75
Wimbledon:        +£3.62
World Cup:       +£29.01

TOTAL:          -£138.12

Fri 27 Jun

Regular readers will know that I am, statistically, poor on a Friday. Why? I dont know. The races are generally a better quality as we go through the week but then why isn't Saturday bad? So, yesterday (Fri) I looked at the cards and decided to ignore Doncaster and Musselburgh, and lower stakes at Newcastle and Curragh as I seemed worse at those tracks than others. Hence the £4.03 results from some races,. In fact, on the day i lost 13.74 points at those tracks...that would have been about £300 loss. As it happens I limited my loss to £103 so I count that as a positive!

Yesterday:    
Lays:           -£102.81

Thu 26 Jun

I traded another Wimbledon match and started off realy well greening up for a small profit. But a service game went against me so I redded up and left it alone. The lays however were a different game :) Only one winner from 14 selections...a day like this was always on the cards.

Yesterday:    
Lays:           +£177.08
Wimbledon:        -£8.12

TOTAL:          +£168.96

Wed 25 Jun

Three low priced winners ensured a profit and I traded onw Wimbledon match to profit and had a flutter on the World Cup successfuly too :)

Yesterday:    
Lays:            +£52.40
Wimbledon:        +£6.17
World Cup:        +£8.66
TOTAL:           +£67.23

Tue 24 Jun

A dissappointng end to the day with the fourth winner but, TBH, no harm done.

Yesterday:    
Lays:             -£9.82

Mon 23 Jun

Two winners but the low prices ensured I did not lose on the day and means I have strung together 4 winning days in a row.

Yesterday:    
Lays:             +£5.79

Sun 22 Jun

Not too many selections becaus eof the reduced racing on a Sunday but I managed a clean sweep :)

Yesterday:    
Lays:           +£104.43

Sat 21 Jun

Two winners but another day around the £100 mark :)

Yesterday:    
Lays:            +£93.06

Fri 20 Jun

A winning day...just because I reduced stakes. Oh well.

Yesterday:    
Lays:            +£110.63

Thu 19 Jun

Bugger me..five unsuccessful lays today. Six tomorrow? :D. Actually, Friday being my worst day of the week statisticaly, perhaps I should not joke. I put faith in the numbers and expect the tide to turn and getting a good string of days together. :)

Yesterday:    
Lays:           -£142.96
World Cup:       -£15.88TOTAL:          -£158.84

Wed 18 Jun

I should not have said "Another three winners"  as I hit four today.

Yesterday:    
Lays:            -£97.51
World Cup:        +£1.87TOTAL:           -£95.64

Tue 17 Jun

Another three winners. June is not turning out as expected at all.

Yesterday:    
Lays:            -£33.01
World Cup:        +£2.43TOTAL:           -£30.58

Mon 16 Jun

Three winners but the lowish prices ensured no harm done.

Yesterday:    
Lays:            -£30.18

Sun 15 Jun

DOH! I forgot to start the bot at lunchtime! Missed the first two races and missed out on £47.20 profit. User error.

Other than that a fine day. One winner at odds of 3.8 so no harm done. I also got a free £10 from Ladbrokes and turned that into £8.01 guaranteed profit. And I did a footy bet on the Argentina game for another £13.58 on my Betdaq account.

Yesterday:    
Lays:            +£79.21
Free Bets:        +£8.01
World Cup:       +£13.58
TOTAL:          +£100.80

June to date:    
Lays:           -£905.23
Free Bets:       +£16.62
World Cup:       +£25.58
TOTAL:          -£863.03


Sun 15 Jun

DOH! I forgot to start the bot at lunchtime! Missed the first two races and missed out on £47.20 profit. User error.

Other than that a fine day. One winner at odds of 3.8 so no harm done. I also got a free £10 from Ladbrokes and turned that into £8.01 guaranteed profit. And I did a footy bet on the Argentina game for another £13.58 on my Betdaq account.

Yesterday:    
Lays:            +£79.21
Free Bets:        +£8.01
World Cup:       +£13.58
TOTAL:          +£100.80

June to date:    
Lays:           -£905.23
Free Bets:       +£16.62
World Cup:       +£25.58
TOTAL:          -£863.03

Sat 14 Jun

A very busy day today...I'm glad I use a bot because I went into Cambridge on a bit of a pub crawl at 2pm and didnt get back until 10.30, slightly worse for wear :)))

I lost £3.22 on my £50 SkyBet qualifying bet; I'll get my £10 free bet on Monday. That £37 came out of my Betfair balance and ended up in my SkyBet account.

June to date:   -£964.10
Lays:           +£137.28
Free Bets:        -£3.22

Fri 13 Jun

It would seem the declaration of the end of my losing streak was a tad premature. Well, that and the fact that I seem to be crap on a Friday. And it was Friday 13th! All of those things Hahahaha :D

June to date:  -£1098.16
Lays:           -£267.86
Free Bets:       +£19.50

Thu 12 Jun

After "Going Live" with a new method there is alway, in my experience, a hic-cup and today was no exception. Mind you, if all hic-cups only cost me 3 quid I can live with them!

Got £8 of free money from the World Cup yesterday. Going after a SkyBet one today :)

June to date:  -£849.80
Lays:            -£3.11
Free Bets:       +£8.96

Wed 11 Jun

I decided to incorporate my Sub-System into my Main Method from today. I know 76 days is not long to fully test a product, but I am confident it will work so I upped my game. With pleasing results  :)))

June to date:  -£855.65
Today:         +£239.73

Tue 10 Jun

I have been testing what I have called my Sub-System of selecting lays at priced from even money to 3/1. I upped the stakes on those today. I am an impatient sod...I mean I have paper tested since March :D

June to date: -£1095.38
Today:          +£23.11

Mon 9 Jun

Chipping away:

June to date: -£1118.49
Today:          +£37.70

Sun 8 Jun

Nothing remarkable about Sunday, unless, of course, making a profit is regarded as remarkable...considering I had 6 losing days in a row. Remarkable! :D

Oh, and after losing£1,292 on the losing streak I had to reduce stakes so its going to take me a while to get back to where I was on 1 June.That's OK...it's a marathon not a sprint.

I had £7.64 loss on two free bet qualifiers that I will get back in the next week.

June to date: -£1156.19
Today:           +£9.86

Black Saturday 7 Jun

The thing about "Expected Losing Streaks" is that they are, well, expected. But that does not make them any easier to swallow:

June to date: -£1166.05 
Today:         -£567.10

Fri 6 Jun

I'm going through the worst patch at the moment since I started laying seriously back in March. 5 Losing days in a row and churned 26% of my bank. Bad losing runs like this are expected and toughens you up. Just got to keep the faith and keep laying to get out the other side after some really great days. Target for the month is looking doubtful though and for the first time I have dipped below my budget. Of course, the budget is a smooth line because you can only factor in steady growth and not the upsides of great days and the downsides of losing streaks.

The £47 footy bet was my £50 qualifier with SkyBet for the free £10 bet on Monday.

June to date: -£600.24
Main System:  -£612.28 (using £31 stakes)
Sub-System:    +£12.04 (using £2 stakes)

Thu 5 Jun

I m certainly picking up my fare share of unsuccessful lays at the moment. Another 2 yesterday. I'm not unhappy though, the numbers will turn around. My sub-system is performing well and I look forward to upping stakes on that one soon.

June to date: -£255.44
Main System:  -£266.72 (using £31 stakes)
Sub-System:    +£11.28 (using £2 stakes)

Wed 4 Jun

I had a lay bet unmatched again yesterday, successful lay, of course, cost me £30.52 of profit. It's an annoyance so I am going to amend the bot settings to take the bet in-play in the hope it will be matched in running. When you run at a 90% strike rate then the likelihood is that any unmatched lays will be successful lays.

And, if you look at the Betfair screenshots you'll notice the addition of some small lays. This is another method I have been paper-trading. I am selecting short priced tissue favourites and looking for vulnerability using a different rating method to my higher priced selections. During the period from March to end of May it had a strike rate of 74% but the average BSP was just under 3.5 and made 48 points profit from the 10 weeks of paper trading. So I am testing out now with real cash for small stakes to see if it holds water in the real World! In paper testing mode I was calling this my Sub-Sytem to give is distinction from my Main System.

The Main system yesterday suffered two losses and my Strike Rate for June is just 83% after 4 days and 23 selections. Blips like this happen all the time and I am expecting the percentages to even out over the next week or so. I'm expecting some good days :)

June to date: -£185.56
Today:        -£139.05

Tue 3 Jun

Sod's Law...I set price limits on my lays so if I get any steamers I avoid them. Almost every one of my lays yesterday went off lower than my target. So, I ended up with just two lays and one of them one. Oh well, there will always be days like these.

June to date: -£36.55
Today:       -£126.05

Mon 2 Jun

I just read Mark Iverson's blog about the Betfair Premium Charge (http://markiverson.com/250-to-250000/) and it got me thinking how long I would have going the way I am before the premium charge kicks in. So I contacted Betfair. If I continue to hit my targets then I estimate I have the rest of 2014 OK, but sometime during 2015 I will hit that charge. On the plus side, hitting the PC will mean I am successful at this :)))

Only 7 lays today and I hit a winner, but I went 23 successful lays on the trot so it was going to happen. And the £38 red is due to the weekly free bet from Sky...My SkyBet balance went up by £45.

June to date: +£89.50
Today:        -£43.86
Free Bets      +£6.63

Sun 1 Jun

I thought it was going to be a quiet day with just 4 meetings but I ended up with 7 lays, all of which were successful :)

June to date: +£126.73
Today:        +£126.73